Nonetheless, these experts feel, the best thing Windows 10 has going for it right now is the lack of a viable alternative. "But as long the new environment is sufficiently familiar to both users and developers, the replacement rate for PCs will ensure a continued switch, and some success."
"Windows 7 offers strong competition to any new desktop OS," said Al Hilwa, IDC's program director for software development research, in an email interview. If Windows 10 performs no better than Windows 8 in the consumer, small business, and enterprise markets, Windows 7 will simply linger on. Some analysts have an alternative view: It's Windows 7, not 8, that has the lion's share of the operating system's installed base. The products they make, using other native OSes or even virtual desktops, may look less and less like laptops and not much different from tablets. But if Windows 10 doesn't catch on, device makers may move away from PCs altogether. As with mediocre leadership or poor cable service, people will put up with what they have in the absence of a better alternative. It's not because Windows hasn't mattered that much. Yes, Windows versions have failed before, without Taps being played or world economies crumbling. So, like a prime minister facing a multiparty no-confidence vote, a Windows 10 failure would force Microsoft to make an airtight case for why a Windows operating system must continue to be produced. One is that the Windows platform is now vulnerable to obsolescence. If Windows 10 performs no better, there are two views of the consequences. Windows 8 was a spectacular flop, sunk to a large degree by the start screen.
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